Pick 3 - Buffalo Bills

The Pick - A.J. Green WR Georgia

It has been a long time since the glory days of Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed.

The Bills are currently a team without an identity.  The team ranked in the bottom half of the league in nearly every major team statistic (passing, rushing, rush defense).  The only bright spot being the team ranked 3rd in the league in pass defense.  Of course, when the more talented teams in the division are kicking your ass they usually don't need to pass the ball.  They're running out the clock with run plays while you're desperately passing to get back into it.  Volume is the problem.  Opponents ran 571 run plays against the Bills while only throwing 473 times.

With all that said, the right move for a franchise this far down in the league is to draft the best player available.  In this case that is A.J. Green.  Green has been a star since he stepped foot on Georgia's campus.  His impact on the Bulldogs season was apparent when he returned from one of the more ridiculous suspensions in modern history.  (Reggie Bush's parents lived in a $250,000 paid for by agents/boosters and it took 5 years to investigate.  Green sells something that belongs to him and the NCAA cracks down in a few months.)  In any event, the Bulldogs were a completely different team with Green's athletic ability and incredible skill back in the lineup.  Green dominated all comers and showed his superior talent during the second half of the season, while the Bulldogs went from also ran to bowl eligible status.

I've seen some mock drafts saying that the Bills are "okay" at wide receiver with the emergence of Stevie Johnson.  Johnson is a good player.  Lee Evans is definitely serviceable.  However, the team needs an identity.  Ryan Fitzpatrick can get the job done as a signal caller.  The team should give him another year to develop while adding an uber-talented weapon to give this team a much needed identity.  It is time for the team to be something other than simply "okay" or more accurately "mediocre" at every position.  If Fitzpatrick doesn't get it done then they can draft another QB next year, a la the Cowboys drafting Michael Irvin just before getting Troy Aikman.  At the least the new QB would have a ton of targets.

The Bills need to address issues with offensive line, pass rushing linebacker and perhaps tight end later in the draft.

Mock Draft - Pick 2

On the Clock - Denver Broncos

2. Denver Broncos - Nick Fairley

One of the top players in this draft, and at a position of need this just makes way too much sense.  I doubt he'll have the impact that Suh provided the Lions last year, but honestly no one can be expected to.   This pick has the opportunity to be one of the huge tipping points in the draft however, and could go a lot of different ways.

First, if someone wants to take a quarterback early, this is the spot to trade to.  Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown once again that he can start and quarterback and run an offense well enough that fans won't change the channel, but long-term if the Bills want to be competitive he's not the answer.  So they may be inclined to take Gabbert with the third pick.  If not there is no way he falls all the way past Arizona at 5, with Carson Palmer ready to retire if he isn't traded, and a mannequin dressed in Kurt Warner's old jersey Arizona's best option one of these teams will take Gabbert, and one of them may even move up in front of the Bills to do it.

With Champ Bailey likely to depart Patrick Peterson (or P.P) as he will be known from this point forward will also factor in.  Taking a CB this high is risky though, and until P.P runs the short shuttle and 3 cone drill and shows he has the agility and change of direction to hang in the NFL I can't slot him in here.

Also if John Fox isn’t sold on Tim Tebow he could take Gabbert here as well.  But I think it’s worth giving Tebow a shot after what he showed at the end of the year, knowing that if it goes bad Gabbert real wasn’t a once in a lifetime quarterback that you missed out on, and you can probably draft someone comparable next year.

Mock Draft - Carolina Panthers on the Clock

Brian and I will be putting together a mock draft by alternating picks.  I'm up first

1.  Carolina Panthers - Da'Quan Bowers - DE Clemson

Bowers is the top pass rusher available in this draft.  The Panthers roster is depleted at virtually every position.  The Panthers need to start rebuilding.  In the NFL there are three marquis positions that define the modern franichise:  (1) Quarterback; (2) Left Tackle; and (3) Pass Rushing defensive end or linebacker.  It's no secret the modern game is based on passing.  The three key players in every pass play are those listed above.  With the departure of Julius Peppers the Panthers lost the best overall talent available at this position.

The only other possibility here would have been Fairley from Auburn.  Fairley is a player in the Warren Sapp mold which makes him valuable against both the pass and the run.  However, defensive tackles can be limited in their impact on the game because they often play a limited number of snaps.  As a result using the number one pick on a player that may play only half your defensive snaps is not necessarily a good plan.

The last piece that makes this the smart pick is the possibility of a collective bargaining agreement.  If a new CBA is reached then it will almost certainly include a rookie wage scale.  The enormous price of the number one draft pick has forced many teams to reach for the best QB available in recent years, regardless of that player's grade.  A franchise can only justify paying $50 million guaranteed to the quarterback position.  A rookie wage scale means that other positions are more likely to factor into the number one pick.  It would also increase the potential to trade the top picks in the draft because with less money invested the top picks would no longer be an all or nothing proposition.

The Book of Challenges

Brian and I have always talked about writing a book called the Book of Challenges.  The book would center on how to properly use your coach's challenges in a NFL game.  This subject comes up because in the Pittsburgh-Ravens game Mike Tomlin used a challenge on the opening play of the game for approximately 15 yards of field position.  On the play the return man, Webb, was tackled at the 35 yard line, but the referees ruled he was not down.  He got up and ran to the 50 yard line before being tackled again.  Tomlin challenged the play and won.  The announcers, Dierdorf and the guy I always mix up with Bryant Gumble, praised Tomlin for challenging the play.  They are both idiots.

Here is how the Book of Challenges looks:
Chapter 1 - Turnovers
Chapter 2 - Touchdowns
Chapter 3 - Turnovers that lead to Touchdowns
Chapter 4 - That's it.  You do not challenge anything that does not result in a turnover or a touchdown. The only possible exception being third down plays that would result in a fourth down, which are essentially turnovers.

The point is simple.  With only two challenges those challenges must be reserved for plays that result in points.  Turnovers result in points.  Touchdowns result in points on the board.  Herm Edwards once said something smart (it might be the only time) "You play to win the game."  Well, points win the game.  15 yards does not win the game.  In fact, it wins nothing.

If you blow your challenges on 15 yard plays then you might end up running out of challenges.  You only get 2, unless you are right about both.  Even then you only get three.  Any time there is a questionable turnover a coach should use their first challenge in order to save points or gain points, depending on your prospective.  However, if you've used one of your challenges on the first play of the game then you really can only afford to risk a challenge if it is a turnover that leads to a touchdown.  You cannot challenge a regular turnover and must rely upon your defense to make it up.  Either your defense gets a stop after turnover they caused or they make a stop after your offense turns it over.

In the aforementioned Pitt-Baltimore game Tomlin had to use his second challenge in the first quarter when Big Ben coughed up the ball and everyone except Corey Redding stopped playing.  Redding scored a touchdown on the turnover and Tomlin had to try to stem the tide.  Now if this game comes down to a questionable call in the subsequent three quarters Pittsburgh has to live with whatever call happens on the field.

This is especially dangerous because so many NFL officials have adopted a wait and see approach to fumbles and other calls.  Rather than blow the whistle and risk depriving a team of the fumble recovery or extra yardage, the officials rely upon replay to sort it.  The replay of plays when a whistle makes a challenge impossible has trained the referees to swallow the whistle rather than make the right call immediately.  It is a matter of preventing them from embarrassing themselves.

Turnovers.  Touchdowns.  Turnovers that lead to Touchdowns.  That's it.